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India’s Monsoon 2026 Forecast Drops to 90% of Normal — El Niño Threatens Agriculture and Economy as IMD Issues Below-Normal Warning

Surabhi Sharma — Fri, 29 May 2026 06:32:37 +0000

India’s monsoon outlook for 2026 has darkened considerably, with the latest forecasts suggesting the country could receive its lowest rainfall in three years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the 2026 southwest monsoon at approximately 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 870 mm — firmly in the “below normal” category and a significant departure from the above-average rains India has enjoyed since 2023.

The concerns have deepened further this week as updated models suggest the cumulative seasonal figure could slip to around 90% of LPA, bringing the forecast perilously close to the “deficient” threshold. For a country where 60% of farmland relies on monsoon rains and the kharif season drives nearly half the annual agricultural output, the implications are profound.

The El Niño Factor

At the heart of the grim outlook is a developing super El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño — characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — disrupts the Walker Circulation, a critical atmospheric pressure system that drives moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent during the June-September monsoon season.

The current El Niño event is being compared to the powerful 2015-16 episode, when India received just 88% of LPA rainfall. During that season, IMD had initially predicted 93% but was forced to revise downward as El Niño intensified. Climate scientists warn that history could repeat itself if Pacific Ocean temperatures continue their upward trajectory through June and July.

“The probability of a deficient season — rainfall below 90% of LPA — stands at 35%, which is more than double the long-term climatological probability of 16%,” noted a senior IMD scientist in a recent briefing. “The chances of a below-normal season are 31%, while the probability of normal rainfall has dropped to just 27%.”

Regional Impact: Most of India at Risk

The rainfall deficit is not expected to be uniform across the country. IMD projections indicate that barring some regions in the extreme north such as Ladakh, the extreme west including parts of Rajasthan, the Northeast, and portions of the northern south peninsula like Telangana, the rest of India will see below-average rainfall.

The Indo-Gangetic plain — India’s agricultural heartland covering Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab — is expected to bear the brunt of the deficit. These states collectively account for over 40% of India’s rice, wheat, and pulses production, and even a 10-15% shortfall in monsoon rains can dramatically reduce crop yields.

Southern states including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala — already grappling with erratic weather patterns — face their own challenges. The latter half of the monsoon season, typically July through September, is expected to be most affected as El Niño conditions peak.

Agricultural Consequences: Kharif Season Under Threat

India’s kharif (summer-sown) crops — including rice, cotton, sugarcane, soybean, and pulses — are critically dependent on monsoon rains. A below-normal monsoon could reduce the area under cultivation, delay sowing schedules, and lower per-hectare yields across multiple crops.

Rice, India’s most important kharif crop, requires sustained rainfall during the transplanting period in June-July. If rains are delayed or deficient, farmers in states like West Bengal, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh could be forced to reduce paddy acreage. India produced approximately 136 million tonnes of rice in 2025-26 — any significant drop could affect both domestic supply and export commitments.

Cotton and soybean farmers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh are particularly vulnerable. These crops need well-distributed rainfall through the growing season, and El Niño years historically produce uneven, concentrated spells of rain followed by extended dry periods.

Economic Ripple Effects

The monsoon’s influence extends far beyond the farm gate. Agriculture contributes roughly 15% to India’s GDP but employs nearly 42% of the workforce. A poor monsoon season can trigger a cascade of economic effects — reduced rural incomes, lower consumer spending in semi-urban and rural areas, and rising food prices.

Food inflation is the most immediate concern. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been carefully managing monetary policy, may face renewed pressure if vegetable and cereal prices spike due to lower production. During the 2015-16 El Niño, pulses prices surged nearly 40% year-on-year, forcing the government to import emergency stocks.

Reservoir levels across major dam systems — including Koyna, Bhakra, and Nagarjuna Sagar — are currently at seasonal averages, but a deficient monsoon could leave them below capacity by September, affecting irrigation supplies for the rabi (winter) season as well. This creates a double-whammy scenario where both consecutive crop seasons are affected.

Government Response and Preparedness

The central government has begun mobilising contingency plans. The Agriculture Ministry has directed states to prepare drought-management protocols and ensure seed and fertiliser supplies for alternative crop varieties that require less water. The PM-KISAN scheme disbursements have been fast-tracked to provide farmers with liquidity ahead of the sowing season.

Additionally, the government is expanding the coverage of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) crop insurance scheme, which saw enrolment surge 18% in the last kharif season. States have also been asked to keep buffer stocks of essential commodities ready to intervene in markets if prices spike.

What Experts Are Saying

Climate scientists caution that while the overall forecast is concerning, the monsoon’s actual performance will depend on several evolving factors. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — another oceanic phenomenon that can counteract El Niño’s effects — is currently neutral but could turn positive by August, potentially offsetting some of the rainfall deficit.

“The worst-case scenario could be a slightly negative rainfall during the monsoon,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “But the monsoon is a complex beast — local factors, the IOD, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation can all modulate the final outcome.”

IMD is expected to release its updated forecast in early June, with finer district-level projections. For now, India watches the Pacific with growing unease as the first monsoon rains, expected around June 1 on the Kerala coast, will provide the first real-world indication of what lies ahead.

The post India’s Monsoon 2026 Forecast Drops to 90% of Normal — El Niño Threatens Agriculture and Economy as IMD Issues Below-Normal Warning appeared first on Daily Tips.

India Heatwave Intensifies as Delhi Hits 43.4 Degrees Celsius Making It Hottest May Day in Two Years and Power Demand Touches Record

Surabhi Sharma — Sat, 23 May 2026 08:03:04 +0000

Delhi Records 43.4°C as Heatwave Blankets Northern India

A punishing heatwave tightened its grip on northern and central India this week as the national capital Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.4 degrees Celsius on 19 May 2026, marking the hottest May day in the city in two years. Several parts of Delhi exceeded 44 degrees Celsius on the same day, with the India Meteorological Department issuing yellow, orange, and red heat warnings across multiple states as temperatures climbed well above normal levels for this time of year.

The Safdarjung observatory, which serves as Delhi’s primary weather recording station, registered the 43.4 degree reading that officially confirmed the record. Other monitoring stations across the National Capital Region reported even higher readings, with parts of Najafgarh, Mungeshpur, and Narela approaching the 45-degree mark. The heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to indicate the perceived temperature, made conditions feel significantly worse than the raw thermometer readings suggest.

The heatwave extends far beyond Delhi. States across northern India including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Odisha are all experiencing prolonged periods of extreme heat. The highest maximum temperature recorded anywhere in the country last week was a staggering 46 degrees Celsius in Akola, Maharashtra, a reading that places the city among the hottest locations on the planet during that period. Reports indicate that all 22 of the world’s hottest cities during the peak of the heatwave were in India, an extraordinary statistic that underscores the severity of the crisis.

Power Demand Hits All-Time National Record

The scorching temperatures have driven India’s electricity demand to unprecedented levels as millions of air conditioners, coolers, and fans operate at maximum capacity. The national power grid recorded its highest-ever instantaneous demand, surpassing the previous record set during last year’s summer peak. The Power Ministry reported that all-India peak electricity demand crossed 250 gigawatts, a figure that would have been considered unimaginable just a decade ago.

The strain on the electricity grid has been particularly acute in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi, where the combination of large populations, limited local generation capacity, and extreme cooling demand has created supply-demand mismatches. While India has significantly expanded its generation capacity in recent years, including a massive build-out of solar and wind installations, the transmission infrastructure required to move power from surplus to deficit regions has not kept pace with demand growth.

Coal-fired power plants across the country are running at maximum capacity, and the government has directed Coal India Limited to prioritise supplies to thermal power stations. Several plants that were scheduled for maintenance shutdowns have been asked to postpone their outages until the heatwave subsides. The Power Ministry has also activated emergency procurement protocols that allow state distribution companies to purchase power on the spot market at higher-than-normal rates to prevent shortfalls from translating into blackouts.

Health Impact and Government Response

Health authorities across affected states have issued advisories urging people to stay indoors during peak afternoon hours, stay hydrated, and avoid strenuous outdoor activities. Hospitals in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra have reported increases in heat-related admissions, including cases of heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and dehydration. Vulnerable populations, including outdoor workers, the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing health conditions, face the greatest risks.

State governments have implemented various emergency measures. Delhi has ordered schools to shift to online-only classes for the remainder of May and restricted construction work during afternoon hours. Uttar Pradesh has deployed additional medical teams to rural areas and set up heat relief camps with drinking water and oral rehydration solutions. Rajasthan has opened public buildings and temples as cooling centres for people without access to air conditioning.

The National Disaster Management Authority has been coordinating a multi-state response, sharing best practices from its Heat Action Plan framework that was developed after the devastating heatwaves of 2015 and 2023. The framework includes colour-coded warning systems, public awareness campaigns, and protocols for hospitals and emergency services. While these measures have helped reduce heat-related mortality compared to the catastrophic events of previous decades, the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves poses a growing challenge to public health infrastructure.

Climate Change and India’s Warming Trend

Climate scientists have noted that the current heatwave fits a broader pattern of increasing extreme heat events across South Asia that is consistent with climate change projections. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has documented a statistically significant increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves over the Indian subcontinent during the past three decades. Spring and early summer temperatures have been trending upward, and the onset of extreme heat has been occurring earlier in the year.

Research published by international climate agencies indicates that the probability of heatwaves as intense as the current event has approximately doubled compared to pre-industrial climate conditions. While natural variability plays a role in any individual weather event, the underlying warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions is making extreme heat events both more likely and more severe. India, as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations with over 1.4 billion people and vast populations engaged in outdoor agricultural and industrial work, faces disproportionate risks.

The IMD has forecast that the heatwave conditions will persist across northern and central India through at least the end of May, with daily highs remaining in the 40 to 45 degree range across the worst-affected regions. Some relief may arrive with the advance of the southwest monsoon, which typically reaches the southern coast of Kerala by late May or early June and progressively covers the rest of the country through July. However, the monsoon’s arrival date varies year to year, and any delay would extend the heatwave’s duration.

Looking Ahead: Monsoon Relief and Long-Term Adaptation

The immediate focus for government agencies and public health authorities is managing the current crisis and preventing heat-related casualties. But the recurring nature of extreme heatwaves is driving longer-term discussions about urban planning, building standards, green infrastructure, and energy policy. Cities like Delhi, Ahmedabad, and Nagpur are developing urban heat island mitigation strategies that include increasing tree cover, using reflective building materials, and creating cool roof programmes for low-income housing.

Energy planners are also grappling with the implications of rising cooling demand for India’s grid and climate goals. Air conditioning penetration in India remains below 10 per cent, compared to over 90 per cent in countries like the United States and Japan. As incomes rise and heatwaves intensify, the demand for cooling is projected to grow exponentially, creating both an enormous energy challenge and a potential feedback loop where more cooling drives more emissions, which in turn drives more warming. Transitioning to energy-efficient cooling technologies and scaling up renewable energy generation are critical priorities for India’s climate and development agenda.