TRAI’s probe, which began in August 2025 after consumer complaints about the disappearance of entry-level prepaid plans, found that several of Jio’s Special Tariff Vouchers (STVs) were restricted to specific channels. The Rs 249 and Rs 199 plans were accessible only through Jio retail stores, while the Rs 209 plan was available exclusively via the MyJio mobile application. The regulator flagged this selective availability as a violation of existing transparency norms that require telecom operators to publish all tariff plans on their websites and make them accessible across all recharge platforms.

Two Key Directives for Jio

TRAI has issued two binding directives: first, that Jio must ensure uniform publication of all active tariff plans across every customer-facing platform, including its website, retail stores, and third-party recharge applications; second, that the company must remove device-specific restrictions on select recharge offerings. These requirements aim to ensure that no subscriber is forced to use a particular channel or device to access a plan that should be universally available.

The order represents one of TRAI’s most assertive interventions in telecom pricing since the sector’s tariff war phase subsided. It is also significant in the context of TRAI’s broader regulatory agenda, which has included pushing tech and telecom companies toward greater consumer protection. The regulator had earlier pushed operators on 5G expansion timelines, directing Jio and Airtel to accelerate rural 5G coverage ahead of the 2027 target.

Industry Context: BSNL Expansion and Tariff Transparency

The order comes at a critical moment for India’s telecom industry. State-run BSNL is continuing its aggressive 4G network expansion, with over 97,000 mobile towers now operational under a TCS-led consortium and orders placed for an additional 30,000 sites. BSNL’s CMD A. Robert J Ravi has said the company will consolidate its 4G infrastructure before evaluating 5G options, using AI tools to optimise network planning. Private operators Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel together have deployed more than five lakh 5G base transceiver stations over the past three years.

For consumers, the TRAI order could have immediate practical benefits. India’s digital payments infrastructure — with UPI processing over 800 million daily transactions — means that recharges increasingly happen through third-party apps rather than operator stores. Restricting plans to specific channels disproportionately affected rural and lower-income users who may not have access to Jio retail outlets or the latest version of the MyJio app. The order also has implications for how smartphone users browse plans, particularly as flagship smartphones in 2026 increasingly come with built-in recharge integrations.

What Happens Next

Jio has until 14 April to comply with TRAI’s directives. Industry observers will watch closely to see whether the company makes material changes to its tariff publication practices or challenges the order through legal channels. The outcome could set a precedent for how telecom pricing transparency is enforced in a market where three private operators — Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone Idea — serve over 1.1 billion mobile connections.

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How the Iran War Reshaped India’s Energy Supply

The disruption centres on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily. Since the conflict began, shipping risks and supply fears have driven crude prices sharply higher. India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, is particularly vulnerable to these disruptions.

Data from recent trade reports show that India’s Russian crude imports jumped 90 per cent in March 2026 as the country scrambled to diversify its oil basket away from Hormuz-dependent sources. However, this shift only partially offsets the cost increase. Every $10 per barrel rise in crude oil adds roughly $15 billion to India’s annual import bill and widens the current account deficit by 0.4 per cent of GDP.

Inflation Risks Are Building Despite Recent Soft Prints

The combination of costly oil and a sliding currency is beginning to feed into consumer prices. The Ministry of Statistics reported headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 3.21 per cent in February 2026, with food inflation at 3.47 per cent. While these figures remain below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4 per cent target, they represent a sharp reversal from the sub-2 per cent inflation seen through late 2025.

The RBI’s own projections, updated at the February policy meeting, forecast CPI inflation rising to 3.2 per cent in Q4 FY26, 4.0 per cent in Q1 FY27, and 4.2 per cent in Q2 FY27. These estimates were made before the full extent of the oil price surge became clear. Analysts now expect the April MPC meeting (6 to 10 April) to feature a significant upward revision to inflation forecasts. The RBI’s GDP growth outlook may also come under scrutiny if the crisis persists.

Fiscal Impact: Budget Assumptions Under Strain

The Union Budget for 2025-26 was framed with moderate oil price assumptions. The Indian basket crude price stood at roughly $63.50 per barrel when the budget was presented, far below current levels. The budget projected a fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP, relying on revenue growth and spending discipline. A sustained oil price above $100 per barrel threatens to undermine these assumptions through higher subsidy payouts, reduced tax revenues from slowing growth, and wider trade deficits.

The record capital expenditure outlined in the budget may also face pressure if the government needs to redirect spending toward energy subsidies. India’s dual-track approach — balancing personal financial wellbeing with large-scale infrastructure investment — becomes harder to sustain when external shocks push up input costs across the economy.

What Comes Next for the Indian Economy

Markets offered a brief reprieve on 1 April when the Sensex rallied 1,186 points on de-escalation hopes, but the underlying economic pressures remain. Business confidence and hiring intentions in India stay strong according to PMI surveys, even as global manufacturing momentum slows. However, the longer the Iran crisis drags on, the greater the strain on India’s macroeconomic stability.

The Indian stock market and bond market will be closely watching the RBI’s April policy statement for signals on how the central bank plans to balance inflation management with growth support. With the repo rate at 5.25 per cent after cumulative cuts of 125 basis points since February 2025, the RBI has limited room to ease further if inflation accelerates. For India’s broader economic trajectory, the resolution of the West Asia conflict may matter more than any domestic policy decision in the near term.

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UPI Daily Transactions 2026 India: From 600 Million to 800 Million in 12 Months

The growth trajectory has been steep. In March 2025, UPI processed approximately 600 million transactions per day. By February 2026, daily volumes exceeded 700 million on all but four days of the month. The 2 March milestone of 800 million transactions in a single day underscores the depth of digital payments adoption across urban and rural India.

The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), which operates UPI, attributes the growth to three factors: expanded merchant acceptance, increased person-to-person transfers driven by peer remittances, and the integration of UPI into government subsidy disbursements. More than 300 million unique users now transact on UPI monthly, with the average transaction value hovering around Rs 1,200.

The RBI’s evolving digital lending framework has also played a role. By bringing fintech lenders under clearer regulatory oversight, the central bank has increased consumer trust in digital financial services, indirectly boosting payment volumes as users grow more comfortable with app-based transactions.

CRED Joins the Payment Aggregator Club

CRED, founded by Kunal Shah in 2018 as a credit card bill payment platform, has secured its PA licence after a rigorous application process. The licence allows CRED to process payments on behalf of merchants, a capability that positions it to compete directly with PayU, Razorpay, and CCAvenue in the business-to-business payments segment.

The approval is significant because it reflects the RBI’s confidence in CRED’s compliance infrastructure. The central bank has been selective in granting PA licences, rejecting or returning several applications over the past two years. CRED’s approval signals that the platform has met the regulator’s standards for capital adequacy, data security, and fraud prevention.

For CRED, which counts over 25 million users, the licence opens new revenue streams beyond its current model of brand rewards and peer-to-peer lending. Analysts expect the company to launch merchant payment solutions within the next quarter, targeting premium retailers and direct-to-consumer brands that align with its affluent user base.

Fintech Bad Loans Decline as Underwriting Discipline Improves

In another positive signal for India’s digital financial sector, bad loans across fintech lending portfolios have declined for the second consecutive quarter. According to data compiled by Moneycontrol, gross non-performing assets (NPAs) among digital lenders fell from 5.8 per cent in September 2025 to 4.1 per cent in December 2025.

The improvement reflects a strategic pivot. After years of aggressive growth fuelled by easy capital, Indian digital lenders have shifted focus to disciplined underwriting and proactive collections. Companies such as KreditBee, MoneyTap, and Fi have tightened eligibility criteria, introduced AI-driven creditworthiness assessments, and reduced exposure to subprime borrowers.

The growth in SIP investments and broader retail participation in financial markets also indicates that Indian consumers are becoming more financially literate, reducing the likelihood of reckless borrowing. This structural shift benefits the entire fintech ecosystem by lowering default rates and improving investor returns on lending portfolios.

The MDR Debate Resurfaces as Subsidy Uncertainty Continues

Despite the volume growth, the economics of UPI remain contentious. Fintechs and payment firms have renewed calls for the government to reintroduce the Merchant Discount Rate (MDR), a small fee charged on digital transactions that was eliminated for UPI in 2019 to encourage adoption.

Without MDR, payment companies rely on government subsidies to cover operational costs. However, industry estimates suggest that the actual payout for FY25 was Rs 1,050 crore against a budgetary promise of Rs 2,000 crore and a final announced allocation of Rs 1,500 crore. The FY26 subsidy has not yet been disbursed as of March, creating cash flow uncertainty for smaller payment processors.

Industry bodies argue that UPI’s success has proven the value of digital payments and that a nominal MDR of 0.1 to 0.3 per cent would generate sustainable revenue without discouraging usage. The government, however, views zero-cost UPI as a public good and has shown reluctance to reverse the policy. The broader market environment may force a resolution, as payment companies cannot indefinitely subsidise transaction processing from their own balance sheets.

What the Numbers Mean for India’s Digital Economy

UPI’s 800-million-transaction day is more than a statistical milestone. It represents the normalisation of digital payments across income levels, geographies, and use cases. Auto-rickshaw drivers, vegetable vendors, and temple donation boxes now accept UPI alongside corporate treasuries and e-commerce platforms. This universality is unmatched by any other real-time payment system globally.

The combination of volume growth, regulatory maturation through PA licences, and improving asset quality in lending paints an optimistic picture for India’s fintech sector. Challenges remain — particularly around profitability, subsidy dependence, and cybersecurity — but the direction of travel is clear.

As FY26 draws to a close, the digital payments industry will be watching two developments closely: the government’s subsidy disbursement timeline and the RBI’s next round of PA licence decisions. Both will shape the competitive landscape for the year ahead and determine whether India’s fintech boom can sustain its remarkable momentum.

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