IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that while maximum daytime temperatures across many parts of the country are expected to remain normal to below normal during the season, nighttime minimum temperatures will be above normal across most regions. The combination of warm nights and extended heatwave duration in eastern, northeastern, and coastal peninsular India poses significant health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations including outdoor workers, the elderly, and urban residents in heat-island-prone cities.

Which States Face the Highest Risk

The IMD’s forecast identifies the following states as likely to experience above-normal heatwave days between April and June: Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Tamil Nadu, and northern Karnataka. Delhi-NCR is also flagged, though heatwave conditions are most likely to be concentrated in May and June.

Heatwave conditions are declared when the maximum temperature at a weather station reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius for plains and 30 degrees Celsius for hilly regions. Most parts of the plains normally experience three to five heatwave days during the April to June period, but the IMD’s models suggest this could extend to eight to 12 days in worst-affected regions this year.

A silver lining in the forecast is that April itself may bring above-normal rainfall across many parts of India, including the northwest, due to active western disturbances. This could temporarily moderate temperatures before the more intense heat of May and June sets in. The full picture of India’s climate trajectory is becoming increasingly concerning to researchers.

The Escalating Extreme Weather Crisis

The CSE’s State of India’s Environment 2026 report, released in March, paints a stark picture. In 2025, extreme weather events impacted at least 17.41 million hectares of crop area — a nearly five-fold increase from 3.61 million hectares in 2024. The number of days experiencing some form of extreme weather rose from 88 per cent in 2024 to 99 per cent in 2025.

Himachal Pradesh was the worst-hit state, experiencing extreme weather on 267 days in 2025, followed by Kerala (173 days) and Madhya Pradesh (162 days). The agricultural losses alone — encompassing both kharif and rabi crops — are estimated at over Rs 1.2 lakh crore, though comprehensive figures are yet to be compiled by the agriculture ministry.

Scientists point to rising temperatures already reshaping wildlife behaviour across the country, from shifting tiger movement patterns to disrupted bird migration. The ecological consequences of intensifying heatwaves extend beyond human comfort to threaten biodiversity, water security, and food production systems.

Government Response and Preparedness

The National Disaster Management Authority has activated its Heat Action Plan for 2026 across all states, mandating cool-roof programmes, public hydration stations, and revised working-hour guidelines for outdoor labourers during heatwave periods. The NDMA has also directed municipal bodies in 50 cities to establish early-warning SMS systems for vulnerable communities.

However, critics argue that India’s climate adaptation spending remains inadequate. The CSE report notes that the clean air budget was slashed even as air quality crises worsen, and similar underfunding plagues heat-resilience infrastructure. Urban heat island effects — exacerbated by concrete construction, reduced green cover, and poor urban planning — mean that cities like Delhi, Nagpur, and Ahmedabad experience temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding rural areas.

Meanwhile, even India’s tourism sector is feeling the impact, with Himalayan tourism operators raising concerns about climate risks affecting trail safety and water availability at high-altitude destinations.

What Lies Ahead

The IMD will release its detailed monsoon forecast in late April, which will indicate whether the southwest monsoon — expected in June — will offer timely relief from the summer heat. Early indications suggest a normal-to-above-normal monsoon, but the gap between the end of western disturbance activity and monsoon onset in May to June is typically when India records its most severe heatwave casualties.

Climate scientists at IIT Delhi’s Centre for Atmospheric Sciences have warned that unless India accelerates its urban greening targets and transitions to heat-resilient building codes, heatwave-related mortality could double by 2030. The 2026 summer season will be a critical test of India’s disaster preparedness systems and its political will to treat climate adaptation as a national priority.

Source: Times of India

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