IMD’s Official Forecast and Current Conditions

In its official press release dated June 2, the IMD stated that conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into several regions simultaneously. The monsoon has already advanced into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area, and large portions of the Bay of Bengal. The meteorological conditions supporting the onset include the development of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea, the strengthening of westerly winds at lower atmospheric levels, and adequate moisture incursion from the Indian Ocean.

The IMD has forecast widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds over Kerala for June 2 and 3, with conditions expected to intensify as the monsoon formally sets in on June 4. Lakshadweep is also expected to receive heavy rainfall during this period. The department has noted, however, that cumulatively below-normal rainfall is likely over Kerala during the first week of the monsoon, suggesting the onset may be gradual rather than explosive.

What Monsoon Onset Means — The Science Behind It

The southwest monsoon is one of the most significant large-scale weather phenomena on Earth. Driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, the monsoon draws moisture-laden winds from the ocean toward the landmass, delivering approximately 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. The onset over Kerala marks the beginning of this process, after which the monsoon progressively advances northward and westward across the country, typically reaching Delhi by late June and covering the entire country by mid-July.

Meteorologists determine monsoon onset based on a set of specific criteria including sustained rainfall over a defined network of weather stations in Kerala, the depth and persistence of westerly winds, and satellite-derived measurements of outgoing longwave radiation that indicate deep convective cloud formation. The onset is not simply “the first day of rain” — it represents a fundamental shift in atmospheric circulation patterns that sustains rainfall over the subsequent months.

Implications for Agriculture and the Kharif Season

India’s kharif (summer) cropping season is directly tied to monsoon rainfall, with crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, and oilseeds depending on adequate and well-distributed precipitation. The monsoon accounts for approximately 50 percent of India’s total agricultural output, and its performance has far-reaching implications for food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic growth.

The timely onset of the monsoon is particularly welcome news for farmers who have been preparing their fields for sowing. A delayed onset can push back the sowing window, reducing crop yields and potentially leading to water shortages for irrigation later in the season. Conversely, a timely arrival allows farmers to begin planting operations on schedule, maximising the growing period available for kharif crops.

This year, the IMD’s earlier long-range forecast had predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, which if realised would be positive for agricultural production. However, forecasters have cautioned that the overall quantum of rainfall matters less than its distribution — both temporal and spatial. Prolonged dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events can be just as damaging as an overall deficit, leading to both drought stress and flooding.

Impact on Reservoirs, Water Resources, and Power Generation

Beyond agriculture, the monsoon is critical for replenishing India’s reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater aquifers. As of early June, several major reservoirs across southern and western India were reported to be well below their normal storage levels, making the incoming monsoon essential for securing drinking water and irrigation supplies for the coming year. Hydropower generation, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of India’s electricity supply, is also heavily dependent on monsoon inflows into dam catchment areas.

The monsoon’s arrival also brings relief from the intense heat that grips much of India during the pre-monsoon period. Several states including Rajasthan, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh have been experiencing severe heatwave conditions with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, and the progressive advance of the monsoon is expected to gradually moderate temperatures across the northern plains by late June.

Climate Change and Monsoon Variability

Climate scientists have noted that India’s monsoon patterns are showing increasing variability, with more frequent extreme rainfall events, longer dry spells within the monsoon season, and greater uncertainty in onset and withdrawal dates. Studies published in recent years have linked these changes to rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Arctic ice melt affecting atmospheric circulation, and changes in aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain.

The growing evidence of climate change impacts on the monsoon has prompted calls for improved weather forecasting infrastructure, expansion of irrigation coverage to reduce agriculture’s dependence on rainfall, and development of climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand both drought and waterlogging. The IMD has been upgrading its forecasting capabilities with new Doppler weather radars, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models, and AI-powered nowcasting tools, but challenges remain in providing accurate district-level forecasts that farmers can act upon.

For the coming days, the IMD has advised fishermen along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts to avoid venturing into the sea due to strong winds and rough sea conditions associated with the monsoon onset. Disaster management authorities in Kerala and Karnataka have been placed on alert for potential flooding and landslides in hilly regions, particularly in the Western Ghats where intense rainfall can trigger dangerous debris flows.

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The concerns have deepened further this week as updated models suggest the cumulative seasonal figure could slip to around 90% of LPA, bringing the forecast perilously close to the “deficient” threshold. For a country where 60% of farmland relies on monsoon rains and the kharif season drives nearly half the annual agricultural output, the implications are profound.

The El Niño Factor

At the heart of the grim outlook is a developing super El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño — characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — disrupts the Walker Circulation, a critical atmospheric pressure system that drives moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent during the June-September monsoon season.

The current El Niño event is being compared to the powerful 2015-16 episode, when India received just 88% of LPA rainfall. During that season, IMD had initially predicted 93% but was forced to revise downward as El Niño intensified. Climate scientists warn that history could repeat itself if Pacific Ocean temperatures continue their upward trajectory through June and July.

“The probability of a deficient season — rainfall below 90% of LPA — stands at 35%, which is more than double the long-term climatological probability of 16%,” noted a senior IMD scientist in a recent briefing. “The chances of a below-normal season are 31%, while the probability of normal rainfall has dropped to just 27%.”

Regional Impact: Most of India at Risk

The rainfall deficit is not expected to be uniform across the country. IMD projections indicate that barring some regions in the extreme north such as Ladakh, the extreme west including parts of Rajasthan, the Northeast, and portions of the northern south peninsula like Telangana, the rest of India will see below-average rainfall.

The Indo-Gangetic plain — India’s agricultural heartland covering Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab — is expected to bear the brunt of the deficit. These states collectively account for over 40% of India’s rice, wheat, and pulses production, and even a 10-15% shortfall in monsoon rains can dramatically reduce crop yields.

Southern states including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala — already grappling with erratic weather patterns — face their own challenges. The latter half of the monsoon season, typically July through September, is expected to be most affected as El Niño conditions peak.

Agricultural Consequences: Kharif Season Under Threat

India’s kharif (summer-sown) crops — including rice, cotton, sugarcane, soybean, and pulses — are critically dependent on monsoon rains. A below-normal monsoon could reduce the area under cultivation, delay sowing schedules, and lower per-hectare yields across multiple crops.

Rice, India’s most important kharif crop, requires sustained rainfall during the transplanting period in June-July. If rains are delayed or deficient, farmers in states like West Bengal, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh could be forced to reduce paddy acreage. India produced approximately 136 million tonnes of rice in 2025-26 — any significant drop could affect both domestic supply and export commitments.

Cotton and soybean farmers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh are particularly vulnerable. These crops need well-distributed rainfall through the growing season, and El Niño years historically produce uneven, concentrated spells of rain followed by extended dry periods.

Economic Ripple Effects

The monsoon’s influence extends far beyond the farm gate. Agriculture contributes roughly 15% to India’s GDP but employs nearly 42% of the workforce. A poor monsoon season can trigger a cascade of economic effects — reduced rural incomes, lower consumer spending in semi-urban and rural areas, and rising food prices.

Food inflation is the most immediate concern. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been carefully managing monetary policy, may face renewed pressure if vegetable and cereal prices spike due to lower production. During the 2015-16 El Niño, pulses prices surged nearly 40% year-on-year, forcing the government to import emergency stocks.

Reservoir levels across major dam systems — including Koyna, Bhakra, and Nagarjuna Sagar — are currently at seasonal averages, but a deficient monsoon could leave them below capacity by September, affecting irrigation supplies for the rabi (winter) season as well. This creates a double-whammy scenario where both consecutive crop seasons are affected.

Government Response and Preparedness

The central government has begun mobilising contingency plans. The Agriculture Ministry has directed states to prepare drought-management protocols and ensure seed and fertiliser supplies for alternative crop varieties that require less water. The PM-KISAN scheme disbursements have been fast-tracked to provide farmers with liquidity ahead of the sowing season.

Additionally, the government is expanding the coverage of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) crop insurance scheme, which saw enrolment surge 18% in the last kharif season. States have also been asked to keep buffer stocks of essential commodities ready to intervene in markets if prices spike.

What Experts Are Saying

Climate scientists caution that while the overall forecast is concerning, the monsoon’s actual performance will depend on several evolving factors. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — another oceanic phenomenon that can counteract El Niño’s effects — is currently neutral but could turn positive by August, potentially offsetting some of the rainfall deficit.

“The worst-case scenario could be a slightly negative rainfall during the monsoon,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “But the monsoon is a complex beast — local factors, the IOD, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation can all modulate the final outcome.”

IMD is expected to release its updated forecast in early June, with finer district-level projections. For now, India watches the Pacific with growing unease as the first monsoon rains, expected around June 1 on the Kerala coast, will provide the first real-world indication of what lies ahead.

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