The Dramatic Day in Delhi

While Mamata Banerjee sat alongside Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, and leaders from 25 opposition parties at the INDIA bloc meeting, discussing strategies to counter the BJP-led government, a group of TMC MPs were holding their own closed-door meeting at the residence of Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, barely a kilometre away.

The rebellion was led by veteran leader Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, who had served as TMC’s Rajya Sabha chief whip for 13 years. Ray resigned from the party, filed his formal letter of resignation, and walked out — taking with him at least 11 MPs who attended the meeting with BJP leadership on the day. Reports indicate that the total number of TMC parliamentarians ready to switch allegiance could be as high as 20, representing over 70 percent of the party’s Lok Sabha strength.

“We are forming a separate bloc in Parliament. We will support the NDA,” Ray declared outside the meeting. “We are the real Trinamool — the party that Mamata Banerjee founded with democratic principles has been reduced to a family enterprise.”

Roots of the Rebellion

The TMC split did not happen overnight. It is the culmination of months of simmering discontent within the party over several issues that have eroded the morale of rank-and-file leaders and parliamentarians.

At the centre of the rebellion is the growing dominance of Mamata Banerjee’s nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, in party affairs. Several senior leaders have privately expressed frustration at being sidelined in favour of younger leaders perceived to be part of the “family circle.” The organisational restructuring carried out by Abhishek in 2025 alienated several veteran leaders who found their influence diminished.

The TMC’s performance in recent by-elections, declining vote share in several parliamentary constituencies, and allegations of corruption involving party functionaries have also contributed to the growing disillusionment. Additionally, the party’s handling of the RG Kar Medical College controversy and its aftermath left many leaders uncomfortable with the leadership’s response.

INDIA Bloc Meeting — A Study in Contrasts

The timing of the split could not have been more damaging for the opposition’s optics. The INDIA bloc meeting, attended by representatives of 25 parties, was meant to project unity against the BJP government on issues ranging from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, CBSE and NEET examination controversies, to economic concerns and constitutional questions.

Congress president Kharge used the meeting to demand the resignation of the Education Minister over NEET irregularities and announced that the INDIA bloc would write to the Chief Justice of India regarding allegations that crores of voter names were deleted during the SIR process.

However, the news of the TMC split overshadowed virtually every other agenda item. Political commentators noted that the development struck at the heart of the INDIA bloc’s credibility, raising questions about whether the alliance can function as a coherent opposition force if its constituent parties are themselves fracturing.

Mamata’s Response

Mamata Banerjee, who was reportedly blindsided by the scale of the rebellion, maintained a stoic public demeanour at the INDIA bloc meeting. However, sources close to the TMC leadership said the Chief Minister was “furious” and had initiated calls to individual MPs to gauge the extent of the damage.

TMC spokesperson Kunal Ghosh dismissed the rebels as “opportunists and BJP agents” who had been planning their exit for months. “These individuals were already in touch with the BJP. Their departure cleanses the party. TMC’s strength comes from the people of Bengal, not from a handful of turncoats,” Ghosh said.

However, the numbers tell a different story. If 20 of TMC’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs and its Rajya Sabha members defect, the party’s parliamentary strength would be decimated. The rebels claim they represent the “real Trinamool” and may seek legal recognition as a separate group, potentially triggering disputes over party symbols and legislative standing.

BJP’s Calculus

For the BJP, the TMC split represents a significant strategic gain. The ruling party, which has been steadily expanding its footprint in West Bengal, now stands to benefit from the organizational chaos within its primary rival in the state.

BJP sources indicated that the rebel TMC MPs would formally join the party in the coming weeks, though the process of integration would be handled carefully to avoid alienating existing BJP leaders in Bengal who have fought against TMC for years.

“This is a natural homecoming for leaders who believe in development, good governance, and nationalism,” said a senior BJP leader. “Mamata Banerjee’s authoritarian leadership style and the pervasive corruption in Bengal made this inevitable.”

Implications for Bengal Politics

The TMC split has profound implications for West Bengal’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 assembly elections. With a significantly weakened parliamentary presence, TMC’s ability to project itself as a national force is severely compromised. More critically, the defection of senior leaders could trigger a domino effect at the state level, where MLAs and local leaders may reassess their political allegiances.

Political analyst Partha Chatterjee (not to be confused with the arrested TMC leader of the same name) observed, “This is the most serious challenge Mamata Banerjee has faced since she founded the TMC. The party’s identity is inseparable from hers, but if the organizational structure collapses, even her personal popularity may not be enough to hold things together.”

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The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the TMC split is a fatal blow to the party or whether Mamata Banerjee, a politician known for her resilience and ability to fight back from adversity, can once again defy the odds and rebuild. For now, however, the political landscape of India’s opposition has been irrevocably altered.

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Why 14 April Was Chosen for the Resignation

The date of Nitish Kumar’s resignation carries significant political and cultural symbolism. 14 April marks the birth anniversary of Dr B R Ambedkar, the principal architect of the Indian Constitution and a towering icon of the social justice movement in India. In a state where caste dynamics have historically shaped political allegiances, the decision to step down on Ambedkar Jayanti is widely seen as a deliberate move to frame the transition within a narrative of constitutional respect and social progress.

Additionally, the Hindu calendar played a role. The period of Kharmas, a roughly one-month window considered inauspicious for major decisions in Bihar, Jharkhand, and eastern Uttar Pradesh, ended on 14 April. While no senior leader publicly confirmed the astrological reasoning, local media outlets noted the convergence of the favourable date with the national holiday as key factors in the timing.

Nitish Kumar’s Legacy as Bihar’s Longest-Serving CM

Nitish Kumar’s political career stretches back to 1985. Over four decades, he built a reputation as a development-focused leader who ended what he famously called the RJD’s “jungle raj” period. His tenure is credited with transforming Bihar’s infrastructure, improving road connectivity, and advancing law and order. Under his leadership, Bihar’s GDP growth rate repeatedly outpaced the national average during key periods, and the state saw significant improvements in literacy rates and women’s safety indicators.

However, his political journey was also marked by frequent alliance shifts. He partnered with the BJP, broke away to ally with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, and then returned to the NDA fold. These switches, while pragmatic, drew criticism from opponents who labelled him opportunistic. His supporters, on the other hand, argued that each move was driven by the need to ensure stability in a state that celebrates its diverse cultural identity and demands inclusive governance.

The Road to Resignation

Kumar’s decision to step down became increasingly apparent after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which the NDA retained power at the Centre. Having secured a Rajya Sabha seat as part of a broader political arrangement, Kumar took his oath as a member of the Upper House on 10 April. Earlier that day, he chaired his last cabinet meeting and informed his colleagues about his decision to dissolve the council of ministers, a constitutional prerequisite before submitting the resignation to the governor.

Sources within the JD(U) have confirmed that Kumar will remain based in Patna and travel to Delhi for parliamentary sessions. His decision to stay in the state capital is seen as a signal that he intends to retain influence over JD(U) affairs and Bihar politics even after vacating the chief minister’s chair.

BJP Set to Lead Bihar for the First Time

With Kumar’s resignation, the BJP is poised to name its first chief minister in Bihar. The party holds a significant number of seats in the state assembly as part of the ruling NDA coalition. While the frontrunner for the post has not been officially announced, names such as Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha have been discussed in political circles. The final decision is expected to come from the BJP’s central leadership in New Delhi.

The BJP’s rise to the top post in Bihar represents a major shift in the state’s political landscape. For over two decades, the chief ministership was either held by Nitish Kumar or, before him, by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi of the RJD. A BJP-led government would signal a new chapter, with implications for caste equations, development policy, and the state’s relationship with the Centre.

Political Reactions Across Party Lines

The resignation drew mixed reactions from across the political spectrum. BJP leaders praised Kumar’s contribution to Bihar’s development and framed the transition as a natural evolution of the NDA alliance. Congress leaders, meanwhile, questioned the circumstances of the handover, suggesting it was a pre-arranged deal that prioritised political convenience over democratic accountability.

The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, called for fresh elections, arguing that the people of Bihar had voted for an NDA government led by Nitish Kumar and that any change in leadership should require a fresh mandate. Political analysts, however, noted that the constitutional mechanism allows for such transitions without elections, provided the new leader commands a majority in the assembly.

As India watched rapidly evolving political developments across several states, the Bihar transition stood out for its scale and historical significance.

What Lies Ahead for Bihar

The incoming chief minister will inherit a state that has made progress but still faces significant challenges. Bihar remains one of India’s poorest states by per capita income, and issues such as flood management along the Kosi and Gandak rivers, unemployment among the youth, and industrial development require urgent attention. The new government will also need to navigate the complex cultural and social dynamics of the state, where caste, religion, and regional identity continue to shape political outcomes.

Bihar’s next assembly elections are due in 2025, meaning the new chief minister will have limited time to establish a governance record before facing the electorate. How the BJP handles this transition, and whether it can retain the JD(U)’s voter base while expanding its own, will be closely watched by political observers across India.

A Transition of National Significance

Nitish Kumar’s resignation is not just a Bihar story. It has national implications for the NDA’s coalition strategy, the BJP’s expansion into eastern India, and the broader dynamics of Indian federalism. As the state prepares for its first BJP chief minister, the coming weeks will reveal whether this transition is a smooth handover or the beginning of a new phase of political uncertainty in one of India’s most politically active states. For now, Bihar stands at the threshold of a new era, bidding farewell to a leader who, for better or worse, defined its politics for an entire generation.

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