Monsoon’s March Across India

The Southwest Monsoon, which set in over Kerala on June 4, 2026, has advanced rapidly in its initial phase. By June 8, it had progressed into Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, the northeastern states including Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram, and parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea.

The IMD’s latest bulletin confirmed that the monsoon has covered significant portions of the western coastline and is expected to advance further into central Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha over the next 48 to 72 hours. The monsoon’s progress has been aided by favorable wind patterns, including the strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow and the formation of cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal.

“The monsoon’s onset and initial progress have been largely in line with our forecasts,” said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD. “We expect the monsoon to cover most of the country by the end of June, which would be consistent with the normal timeline.”

Red Alert for Coastal Karnataka

The IMD has issued a red alert — its highest warning level — for coastal Karnataka, where extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm in 24 hours is expected over the next two days. Districts including Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, and Uttara Kannada have been placed on high alert, with authorities instructed to prepare for potential flooding, landslides, and disruptions to transportation.

The Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) has activated its emergency response mechanisms, deploying National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams to vulnerable areas and setting up relief camps in flood-prone zones. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the Arabian Sea, where wind speeds could reach 55-65 km/h.

Similar warnings have been issued for parts of Kerala and Goa, where heavy rainfall is expected to continue through the week. The Goa government has directed schools in coastal areas to shift to online classes as a precautionary measure.

North India’s Heatwave Agony

In a dramatic contrast to the monsoon-fed rainfall in the south, large parts of northern India continue to endure extreme heatwave conditions. Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan have recorded temperatures exceeding 45°C in several locations, with the IMD issuing orange and yellow heat warnings for these regions.

Delhi, which recorded a maximum temperature of 46.2°C at the Mungeshpur weather station, is experiencing one of its most prolonged heat spells in recent memory. The national capital’s power demand has surged to record levels, straining the electricity grid and causing intermittent outages in several areas.

“The heatwave in northern India is being sustained by a combination of dry westerly winds and the absence of moisture influx from the monsoon, which is still several days away from reaching this region,” explained a senior IMD scientist.

Monsoon and Agricultural Implications

For India’s agricultural sector, which employs nearly half the country’s workforce and depends heavily on monsoon rainfall, the progress of the 2026 monsoon is being watched with intense interest. The timely onset in Kerala and rapid initial progress have been positive signs, but the crucial factor will be the monsoon’s coverage and distribution over the coming weeks.

Farmers in Maharashtra have begun sowing operations for the kharif season, with soybean, cotton, and pulses being the primary crops. However, agricultural experts caution that the current dry conditions in central and northern India have delayed sowing in many areas, and a timely advance of the monsoon into these regions is critical for crop health.

“The first two weeks of June are crucial for kharif sowing decisions. If the monsoon reaches central India by June 15 and northern India by June 20-25, we can expect a normal agricultural season,” said Dr. Ashok Dalwai, agricultural policy expert.

El Niño Concerns

Adding a layer of complexity to the monsoon outlook is the emerging El Niño condition in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, characterised by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has historically been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India.

The IMD has acknowledged the El Niño signal but maintained its forecast for a “normal” monsoon season overall, with total rainfall expected to be within 4 percent of the long-period average. However, the distribution of rainfall — both spatial and temporal — could be significantly affected by El Niño, potentially leading to extended dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events.

“El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean a drought. What it typically does is alter the distribution pattern, creating more variability — some areas get excess rain while others face deficits,” explained Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay.

Delhi Airport Disruption

In a related development, sudden strong winds and a brief but intense thunderstorm at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport on Sunday evening caused significant disruptions. Three Air India aircraft suffered damage from the storm, and flight operations were suspended for approximately 90 minutes. The storm, a pre-monsoon thundershower driven by converging wind systems, brought wind speeds exceeding 70 km/h to parts of the national capital.

Also Read

• Delhi Heatwave Alert Intensifies as IMD Warns Temperatures May Soar to 45 Degrees Celsius With Severe Heat Gripping North India Till May 22
• India Heatwave 2026: Temperatures Soar Past 47 Degrees Celsius in Maharashtra as IMD Warns of Below-Normal Monsoon
• Super El Nino 2026 Threatens India Southwest Monsoon as IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall and Drought Risk Looms Over 60 Percent Farmers
• Massive Solar Storm Hits Earth — Northern Lights Expected Over Kashmir

As India navigates this complex weather pattern — monsoon in the south, heatwave in the north, and the looming shadow of El Niño — the IMD has urged all state governments to maintain a state of preparedness for extreme weather events. The monsoon season, while essential for India’s water security and agriculture, also brings annual challenges of flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage that test the country’s disaster management capabilities.

The post Southwest Monsoon 2026 Advances Into 12 States — IMD Issues Red Alert for Coastal Karnataka, Heatwave Grips North India appeared first on Daily Tips.

IMD’s Official Forecast and Current Conditions

In its official press release dated June 2, the IMD stated that conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into several regions simultaneously. The monsoon has already advanced into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area, and large portions of the Bay of Bengal. The meteorological conditions supporting the onset include the development of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea, the strengthening of westerly winds at lower atmospheric levels, and adequate moisture incursion from the Indian Ocean.

The IMD has forecast widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds over Kerala for June 2 and 3, with conditions expected to intensify as the monsoon formally sets in on June 4. Lakshadweep is also expected to receive heavy rainfall during this period. The department has noted, however, that cumulatively below-normal rainfall is likely over Kerala during the first week of the monsoon, suggesting the onset may be gradual rather than explosive.

What Monsoon Onset Means — The Science Behind It

The southwest monsoon is one of the most significant large-scale weather phenomena on Earth. Driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, the monsoon draws moisture-laden winds from the ocean toward the landmass, delivering approximately 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. The onset over Kerala marks the beginning of this process, after which the monsoon progressively advances northward and westward across the country, typically reaching Delhi by late June and covering the entire country by mid-July.

Meteorologists determine monsoon onset based on a set of specific criteria including sustained rainfall over a defined network of weather stations in Kerala, the depth and persistence of westerly winds, and satellite-derived measurements of outgoing longwave radiation that indicate deep convective cloud formation. The onset is not simply “the first day of rain” — it represents a fundamental shift in atmospheric circulation patterns that sustains rainfall over the subsequent months.

Implications for Agriculture and the Kharif Season

India’s kharif (summer) cropping season is directly tied to monsoon rainfall, with crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, and oilseeds depending on adequate and well-distributed precipitation. The monsoon accounts for approximately 50 percent of India’s total agricultural output, and its performance has far-reaching implications for food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic growth.

The timely onset of the monsoon is particularly welcome news for farmers who have been preparing their fields for sowing. A delayed onset can push back the sowing window, reducing crop yields and potentially leading to water shortages for irrigation later in the season. Conversely, a timely arrival allows farmers to begin planting operations on schedule, maximising the growing period available for kharif crops.

This year, the IMD’s earlier long-range forecast had predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, which if realised would be positive for agricultural production. However, forecasters have cautioned that the overall quantum of rainfall matters less than its distribution — both temporal and spatial. Prolonged dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events can be just as damaging as an overall deficit, leading to both drought stress and flooding.

Impact on Reservoirs, Water Resources, and Power Generation

Beyond agriculture, the monsoon is critical for replenishing India’s reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater aquifers. As of early June, several major reservoirs across southern and western India were reported to be well below their normal storage levels, making the incoming monsoon essential for securing drinking water and irrigation supplies for the coming year. Hydropower generation, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of India’s electricity supply, is also heavily dependent on monsoon inflows into dam catchment areas.

The monsoon’s arrival also brings relief from the intense heat that grips much of India during the pre-monsoon period. Several states including Rajasthan, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh have been experiencing severe heatwave conditions with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, and the progressive advance of the monsoon is expected to gradually moderate temperatures across the northern plains by late June.

Climate Change and Monsoon Variability

Climate scientists have noted that India’s monsoon patterns are showing increasing variability, with more frequent extreme rainfall events, longer dry spells within the monsoon season, and greater uncertainty in onset and withdrawal dates. Studies published in recent years have linked these changes to rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Arctic ice melt affecting atmospheric circulation, and changes in aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain.

The growing evidence of climate change impacts on the monsoon has prompted calls for improved weather forecasting infrastructure, expansion of irrigation coverage to reduce agriculture’s dependence on rainfall, and development of climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand both drought and waterlogging. The IMD has been upgrading its forecasting capabilities with new Doppler weather radars, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models, and AI-powered nowcasting tools, but challenges remain in providing accurate district-level forecasts that farmers can act upon.

For the coming days, the IMD has advised fishermen along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts to avoid venturing into the sea due to strong winds and rough sea conditions associated with the monsoon onset. Disaster management authorities in Kerala and Karnataka have been placed on alert for potential flooding and landslides in hilly regions, particularly in the Western Ghats where intense rainfall can trigger dangerous debris flows.

The post Southwest Monsoon to Hit Kerala Around June 4 as IMD Confirms Onset — What It Means for India’s Agricultural Season appeared first on Daily Tips.