IMD’s Official Forecast and Current Conditions

In its official press release dated June 2, the IMD stated that conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into several regions simultaneously. The monsoon has already advanced into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area, and large portions of the Bay of Bengal. The meteorological conditions supporting the onset include the development of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea, the strengthening of westerly winds at lower atmospheric levels, and adequate moisture incursion from the Indian Ocean.

The IMD has forecast widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds over Kerala for June 2 and 3, with conditions expected to intensify as the monsoon formally sets in on June 4. Lakshadweep is also expected to receive heavy rainfall during this period. The department has noted, however, that cumulatively below-normal rainfall is likely over Kerala during the first week of the monsoon, suggesting the onset may be gradual rather than explosive.

What Monsoon Onset Means — The Science Behind It

The southwest monsoon is one of the most significant large-scale weather phenomena on Earth. Driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, the monsoon draws moisture-laden winds from the ocean toward the landmass, delivering approximately 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. The onset over Kerala marks the beginning of this process, after which the monsoon progressively advances northward and westward across the country, typically reaching Delhi by late June and covering the entire country by mid-July.

Meteorologists determine monsoon onset based on a set of specific criteria including sustained rainfall over a defined network of weather stations in Kerala, the depth and persistence of westerly winds, and satellite-derived measurements of outgoing longwave radiation that indicate deep convective cloud formation. The onset is not simply “the first day of rain” — it represents a fundamental shift in atmospheric circulation patterns that sustains rainfall over the subsequent months.

Implications for Agriculture and the Kharif Season

India’s kharif (summer) cropping season is directly tied to monsoon rainfall, with crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, and oilseeds depending on adequate and well-distributed precipitation. The monsoon accounts for approximately 50 percent of India’s total agricultural output, and its performance has far-reaching implications for food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic growth.

The timely onset of the monsoon is particularly welcome news for farmers who have been preparing their fields for sowing. A delayed onset can push back the sowing window, reducing crop yields and potentially leading to water shortages for irrigation later in the season. Conversely, a timely arrival allows farmers to begin planting operations on schedule, maximising the growing period available for kharif crops.

This year, the IMD’s earlier long-range forecast had predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, which if realised would be positive for agricultural production. However, forecasters have cautioned that the overall quantum of rainfall matters less than its distribution — both temporal and spatial. Prolonged dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events can be just as damaging as an overall deficit, leading to both drought stress and flooding.

Impact on Reservoirs, Water Resources, and Power Generation

Beyond agriculture, the monsoon is critical for replenishing India’s reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater aquifers. As of early June, several major reservoirs across southern and western India were reported to be well below their normal storage levels, making the incoming monsoon essential for securing drinking water and irrigation supplies for the coming year. Hydropower generation, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of India’s electricity supply, is also heavily dependent on monsoon inflows into dam catchment areas.

The monsoon’s arrival also brings relief from the intense heat that grips much of India during the pre-monsoon period. Several states including Rajasthan, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh have been experiencing severe heatwave conditions with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, and the progressive advance of the monsoon is expected to gradually moderate temperatures across the northern plains by late June.

Climate Change and Monsoon Variability

Climate scientists have noted that India’s monsoon patterns are showing increasing variability, with more frequent extreme rainfall events, longer dry spells within the monsoon season, and greater uncertainty in onset and withdrawal dates. Studies published in recent years have linked these changes to rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Arctic ice melt affecting atmospheric circulation, and changes in aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain.

The growing evidence of climate change impacts on the monsoon has prompted calls for improved weather forecasting infrastructure, expansion of irrigation coverage to reduce agriculture’s dependence on rainfall, and development of climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand both drought and waterlogging. The IMD has been upgrading its forecasting capabilities with new Doppler weather radars, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models, and AI-powered nowcasting tools, but challenges remain in providing accurate district-level forecasts that farmers can act upon.

For the coming days, the IMD has advised fishermen along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts to avoid venturing into the sea due to strong winds and rough sea conditions associated with the monsoon onset. Disaster management authorities in Kerala and Karnataka have been placed on alert for potential flooding and landslides in hilly regions, particularly in the Western Ghats where intense rainfall can trigger dangerous debris flows.

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The situation shows no signs of abating. IMD has warned that intense heat conditions are likely to continue for at least another four to five days across a vast swathe of the country, including Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Telangana. Maximum temperatures have been frequently exceeding 45°C in many areas, with Banda in Uttar Pradesh and Brahmpuri in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region recording the country’s highest maximum temperature at a scorching 47.6°C on Monday.

Night-Time Heat: A Growing Health Concern

While daytime temperatures above 45°C grab headlines, experts say it is the persistently high night-time temperatures that pose the greatest health risk. When minimum temperatures remain above 30°C, the human body gets little opportunity to cool down during sleep, leading to heat stress, dehydration, and in extreme cases, heat stroke and organ failure.

“The minimum temperature not dropping below 32 degrees is extremely worrying from a public health perspective,” said Dr. Poornima Prabhakaran, Director of the Centre for Environmental Health at the Public Health Foundation of India. “The body needs a recovery period at night. When that doesn’t happen, the cumulative heat stress can be fatal, particularly for the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without access to cooling.”

Delhi’s previous record for the warmest May night was 33.2°C, recorded on May 22, 2012. While Sunday’s reading didn’t break that absolute record, it is the highest nighttime temperature recorded in the city since then, and meteorologists warn that the current conditions could push readings even higher in the coming days.

Daytime Extremes Across the Country

The daytime situation is equally alarming. Delhi’s Safdarjung weather station recorded a maximum of 43.6°C on May 24 — making it the hottest May day in the city in two years. But Delhi’s temperatures pale in comparison to what other parts of the country have been experiencing:

• Uttar Pradesh: Banda recorded 47.6°C, with several other cities including Jhansi (47.2°C), Prayagraj (46.8°C), and Varanasi (46.4°C) experiencing extreme heat.
• Maharashtra: Brahmpuri in Vidarbha matched Banda at 47.6°C, while Akola, Chandrapur, and Nagpur all crossed 46°C.
• Rajasthan: Churu (47.1°C), Ganganagar (46.9°C), and Bikaner (46.5°C) continued to bake under the desert sun.
• Madhya Pradesh: Khajuraho (46.3°C), Nowgong (46.1°C), and Gwalior (45.8°C) reported temperatures well above normal.

Power Grid Under Unprecedented Strain

The relentless heat has driven India’s power consumption to record levels. Peak electricity demand has repeatedly broken records throughout May, driven not only by daytime cooling needs but increasingly by nighttime air conditioning usage as temperatures refuse to drop. India set a new all-time peak power demand record earlier this month, and grid operators have warned of potential shortfalls if conditions persist.

“Higher heat means increased power consumption, and India has seen demand driven to repeated records, not only during the day but at night, resulting in occasional shortfalls,” noted a report from Business Standard. The situation has been exacerbated by the Iran conflict’s impact on global energy prices, which has raised the cost of imported coal and natural gas used in power generation.

Several states have reported power cuts ranging from two to six hours daily, with rural areas bearing the brunt of load shedding. In Uttar Pradesh, where temperatures have been among the highest in the country, farmer unions have demanded uninterrupted power supply for irrigation, warning that the heat could devastate the kharif sowing season if crops don’t receive adequate water.

El Niño and Climate Change: The Underlying Drivers

Climate scientists point to a combination of El Niño conditions and long-term climate change as the primary drivers behind this year’s exceptional heat. While the current El Niño event is weakening, its residual warming effect on sea surface temperatures continues to amplify heat extremes over the Indian subcontinent.

“What we’re seeing is consistent with climate projections for South Asia,” said Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting. The combination of El Niño and background warming from greenhouse gas emissions is creating conditions that would have been considered extraordinary just a decade ago.”

A recent study published in Nature Climate Change found that heatwave events in India have increased in frequency by 30% over the past two decades, with the average duration of each event also rising. The study warned that without significant greenhouse gas emission reductions, such extreme heat events could become the norm rather than the exception by mid-century.

Impact on Agriculture and Livelihoods

The heatwave’s impact extends far beyond personal discomfort. Maharashtra’s famed Alphonso mango trade has been devastated, with officials reporting that hotter weather has ruined this year’s crop of the variety known as the “King of Mangoes.” The combined effect of heat, El Niño, and the disruption caused by the Iran war has battered the mango trade across the state.

Wheat procurement in Punjab and Haryana has also been affected, with early maturation due to heat reducing grain quality and yields. Animal husbandry experts have warned of increased mortality among livestock, particularly in Rajasthan and Gujarat, where water sources are rapidly drying up.

Government Response and Advisories

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued heat action plans across affected states, urging citizens to stay indoors between 11 AM and 4 PM, maintain hydration, and avoid strenuous outdoor activity. Several state governments have modified school timings, with classes beginning and ending earlier to avoid peak heat hours.

Delhi Chief Minister has announced the opening of 500 additional “cooling shelters” across the city, equipped with water coolers and fans, to provide relief for the homeless and outdoor workers. Similar measures have been announced in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.

As India braces for several more days of punishing heat, the current crisis serves as a stark reminder of the country’s vulnerability to climate extremes — and the urgent need for long-term adaptation strategies that go beyond short-term crisis management.

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A punishing heatwave tightened its grip on northern and central India this week as the national capital Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.4 degrees Celsius on 19 May 2026, marking the hottest May day in the city in two years. Several parts of Delhi exceeded 44 degrees Celsius on the same day, with the India Meteorological Department issuing yellow, orange, and red heat warnings across multiple states as temperatures climbed well above normal levels for this time of year.

The Safdarjung observatory, which serves as Delhi’s primary weather recording station, registered the 43.4 degree reading that officially confirmed the record. Other monitoring stations across the National Capital Region reported even higher readings, with parts of Najafgarh, Mungeshpur, and Narela approaching the 45-degree mark. The heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to indicate the perceived temperature, made conditions feel significantly worse than the raw thermometer readings suggest.

The heatwave extends far beyond Delhi. States across northern India including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Odisha are all experiencing prolonged periods of extreme heat. The highest maximum temperature recorded anywhere in the country last week was a staggering 46 degrees Celsius in Akola, Maharashtra, a reading that places the city among the hottest locations on the planet during that period. Reports indicate that all 22 of the world’s hottest cities during the peak of the heatwave were in India, an extraordinary statistic that underscores the severity of the crisis.

Power Demand Hits All-Time National Record

The scorching temperatures have driven India’s electricity demand to unprecedented levels as millions of air conditioners, coolers, and fans operate at maximum capacity. The national power grid recorded its highest-ever instantaneous demand, surpassing the previous record set during last year’s summer peak. The Power Ministry reported that all-India peak electricity demand crossed 250 gigawatts, a figure that would have been considered unimaginable just a decade ago.

The strain on the electricity grid has been particularly acute in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi, where the combination of large populations, limited local generation capacity, and extreme cooling demand has created supply-demand mismatches. While India has significantly expanded its generation capacity in recent years, including a massive build-out of solar and wind installations, the transmission infrastructure required to move power from surplus to deficit regions has not kept pace with demand growth.

Coal-fired power plants across the country are running at maximum capacity, and the government has directed Coal India Limited to prioritise supplies to thermal power stations. Several plants that were scheduled for maintenance shutdowns have been asked to postpone their outages until the heatwave subsides. The Power Ministry has also activated emergency procurement protocols that allow state distribution companies to purchase power on the spot market at higher-than-normal rates to prevent shortfalls from translating into blackouts.

Health Impact and Government Response

Health authorities across affected states have issued advisories urging people to stay indoors during peak afternoon hours, stay hydrated, and avoid strenuous outdoor activities. Hospitals in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra have reported increases in heat-related admissions, including cases of heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and dehydration. Vulnerable populations, including outdoor workers, the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing health conditions, face the greatest risks.

State governments have implemented various emergency measures. Delhi has ordered schools to shift to online-only classes for the remainder of May and restricted construction work during afternoon hours. Uttar Pradesh has deployed additional medical teams to rural areas and set up heat relief camps with drinking water and oral rehydration solutions. Rajasthan has opened public buildings and temples as cooling centres for people without access to air conditioning.

The National Disaster Management Authority has been coordinating a multi-state response, sharing best practices from its Heat Action Plan framework that was developed after the devastating heatwaves of 2015 and 2023. The framework includes colour-coded warning systems, public awareness campaigns, and protocols for hospitals and emergency services. While these measures have helped reduce heat-related mortality compared to the catastrophic events of previous decades, the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves poses a growing challenge to public health infrastructure.

Climate Change and India’s Warming Trend

Climate scientists have noted that the current heatwave fits a broader pattern of increasing extreme heat events across South Asia that is consistent with climate change projections. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has documented a statistically significant increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves over the Indian subcontinent during the past three decades. Spring and early summer temperatures have been trending upward, and the onset of extreme heat has been occurring earlier in the year.

Research published by international climate agencies indicates that the probability of heatwaves as intense as the current event has approximately doubled compared to pre-industrial climate conditions. While natural variability plays a role in any individual weather event, the underlying warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions is making extreme heat events both more likely and more severe. India, as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations with over 1.4 billion people and vast populations engaged in outdoor agricultural and industrial work, faces disproportionate risks.

The IMD has forecast that the heatwave conditions will persist across northern and central India through at least the end of May, with daily highs remaining in the 40 to 45 degree range across the worst-affected regions. Some relief may arrive with the advance of the southwest monsoon, which typically reaches the southern coast of Kerala by late May or early June and progressively covers the rest of the country through July. However, the monsoon’s arrival date varies year to year, and any delay would extend the heatwave’s duration.

Looking Ahead: Monsoon Relief and Long-Term Adaptation

The immediate focus for government agencies and public health authorities is managing the current crisis and preventing heat-related casualties. But the recurring nature of extreme heatwaves is driving longer-term discussions about urban planning, building standards, green infrastructure, and energy policy. Cities like Delhi, Ahmedabad, and Nagpur are developing urban heat island mitigation strategies that include increasing tree cover, using reflective building materials, and creating cool roof programmes for low-income housing.

Energy planners are also grappling with the implications of rising cooling demand for India’s grid and climate goals. Air conditioning penetration in India remains below 10 per cent, compared to over 90 per cent in countries like the United States and Japan. As incomes rise and heatwaves intensify, the demand for cooling is projected to grow exponentially, creating both an enormous energy challenge and a potential feedback loop where more cooling drives more emissions, which in turn drives more warming. Transitioning to energy-efficient cooling technologies and scaling up renewable energy generation are critical priorities for India’s climate and development agenda.

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