The five victims in Khagaria — including two farmers working in paddy fields, a woman near her home, and two children playing outdoors — were killed when intense thunderstorm activity accompanied the monsoon’s arrival. Lightning fatalities are tragically common during the early monsoon period in Bihar, which records more lightning deaths than any other Indian state. The state disaster management authority has issued advisories urging residents to stay indoors during thunderstorms and avoid open fields, isolated trees, and water bodies.

Monsoon’s Progress and Outlook

The monsoon, which hit the Kerala coast on June 1 — right on schedule — has made steady progress across the western coast, central India, and the northeast before reaching Bihar. The IMD reported that monsoon conditions are now established across Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, most of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, large parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and the entire northeastern region.

The advance into Bihar is significant for the state’s predominantly agricultural economy. Kharif (summer) crops — including rice, maize, and pulses — depend critically on monsoon rainfall for sowing and early growth. Farmers across the state have been anxiously awaiting the rains, with many reporting delayed sowing due to the extended dry spell and heatwave conditions that preceded the monsoon’s arrival.

The IMD has forecast above-normal rainfall for Bihar and eastern India during the June-September monsoon season, which is good news for agricultural output. However, the department has also warned of the increased risk of flash floods, particularly in north Bihar districts that are prone to flooding from rivers originating in Nepal. The Kosi, Gandak, and Bagmati river systems, which have a history of devastating floods, will be closely monitored throughout the season.

Relief From the Heatwave

The monsoon’s arrival has brought dramatic temperature relief across Bihar and neighbouring states. Patna, which recorded temperatures of 44-45°C during the heatwave peak last week, saw the mercury drop to 32°C following the onset of monsoon rains. Similar cooling was reported across Gaya, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and other cities that had been sweltering under extreme heat for weeks. (Related: Southwest Monsoon 2026 Advances Into 12 States — I…)

The cooling effect, however, comes with its own challenges. The sudden shift from extreme heat to heavy rainfall increases the risk of waterlogging and urban flooding in poorly drained cities. Patna, which experienced catastrophic urban flooding during the 2019 monsoon, has been working to improve its drainage infrastructure, but civic officials acknowledge that significant vulnerabilities remain.

The transition from heatwave to monsoon also brings health risks. The sudden increase in humidity creates ideal conditions for vector-borne diseases like dengue, malaria, and chikungunya. The Bihar health department has activated its monsoon disease surveillance programme and is conducting anti-larval spraying operations across the state.

National Monsoon Picture

Across India, the 2026 monsoon is shaping up to be a critical season. The country’s farm sector, which employs approximately 42% of the workforce and accounts for 18% of GDP, depends heavily on the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. A good monsoon can boost rural incomes, moderate food inflation, and support overall economic growth, while a poor monsoon can have cascading negative effects across the economy. (Related: Southwest Monsoon to Hit Kerala Around June 4 as I…)

The IMD’s seasonal forecast predicts that India will receive 103% of its long-period average rainfall this monsoon — categorised as “normal.” The forecast is supported by neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically favour normal monsoon performance over India.

However, meteorologists caution that aggregate normal rainfall can mask significant regional and temporal variations. Some areas may receive excess rainfall leading to floods, while others may face dry spells that hurt crop growth. The emerging La Niña conditions expected later in the season could intensify rainfall in the second half of the monsoon, increasing flood risks in September and October.

Impact on Crop Prices and Economy

The monsoon’s progress is being closely watched by policymakers, particularly in the context of food inflation, which has been a persistent challenge. Prices of vegetables, pulses, and cereals have remained elevated in recent months, driven partly by last year’s uneven monsoon and partly by the global energy price spike caused by the US-Iran conflict.

A good monsoon season could help moderate food prices by boosting kharif crop output, particularly for rice, pulses, and oilseeds. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been balancing inflation concerns with growth considerations, is watching monsoon developments closely as it formulates its monetary policy stance for the coming quarters.

For the families of the five lightning victims in Khagaria, however, the monsoon’s arrival carries only grief. As India welcomes the life-giving rains that sustain its agriculture and economy, the human cost of the season’s violent weather is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of communities at the frontlines of India’s climate reality.

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Monsoon’s March Across India

The Southwest Monsoon, which set in over Kerala on June 4, 2026, has advanced rapidly in its initial phase. By June 8, it had progressed into Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, the northeastern states including Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram, and parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea.

The IMD’s latest bulletin confirmed that the monsoon has covered significant portions of the western coastline and is expected to advance further into central Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha over the next 48 to 72 hours. The monsoon’s progress has been aided by favorable wind patterns, including the strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow and the formation of cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal.

“The monsoon’s onset and initial progress have been largely in line with our forecasts,” said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD. “We expect the monsoon to cover most of the country by the end of June, which would be consistent with the normal timeline.”

Red Alert for Coastal Karnataka

The IMD has issued a red alert — its highest warning level — for coastal Karnataka, where extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm in 24 hours is expected over the next two days. Districts including Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, and Uttara Kannada have been placed on high alert, with authorities instructed to prepare for potential flooding, landslides, and disruptions to transportation.

The Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) has activated its emergency response mechanisms, deploying National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams to vulnerable areas and setting up relief camps in flood-prone zones. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the Arabian Sea, where wind speeds could reach 55-65 km/h.

Similar warnings have been issued for parts of Kerala and Goa, where heavy rainfall is expected to continue through the week. The Goa government has directed schools in coastal areas to shift to online classes as a precautionary measure.

North India’s Heatwave Agony

In a dramatic contrast to the monsoon-fed rainfall in the south, large parts of northern India continue to endure extreme heatwave conditions. Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan have recorded temperatures exceeding 45°C in several locations, with the IMD issuing orange and yellow heat warnings for these regions.

Delhi, which recorded a maximum temperature of 46.2°C at the Mungeshpur weather station, is experiencing one of its most prolonged heat spells in recent memory. The national capital’s power demand has surged to record levels, straining the electricity grid and causing intermittent outages in several areas.

“The heatwave in northern India is being sustained by a combination of dry westerly winds and the absence of moisture influx from the monsoon, which is still several days away from reaching this region,” explained a senior IMD scientist.

Monsoon and Agricultural Implications

For India’s agricultural sector, which employs nearly half the country’s workforce and depends heavily on monsoon rainfall, the progress of the 2026 monsoon is being watched with intense interest. The timely onset in Kerala and rapid initial progress have been positive signs, but the crucial factor will be the monsoon’s coverage and distribution over the coming weeks.

Farmers in Maharashtra have begun sowing operations for the kharif season, with soybean, cotton, and pulses being the primary crops. However, agricultural experts caution that the current dry conditions in central and northern India have delayed sowing in many areas, and a timely advance of the monsoon into these regions is critical for crop health.

“The first two weeks of June are crucial for kharif sowing decisions. If the monsoon reaches central India by June 15 and northern India by June 20-25, we can expect a normal agricultural season,” said Dr. Ashok Dalwai, agricultural policy expert.

El Niño Concerns

Adding a layer of complexity to the monsoon outlook is the emerging El Niño condition in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, characterised by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has historically been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India.

The IMD has acknowledged the El Niño signal but maintained its forecast for a “normal” monsoon season overall, with total rainfall expected to be within 4 percent of the long-period average. However, the distribution of rainfall — both spatial and temporal — could be significantly affected by El Niño, potentially leading to extended dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events.

“El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean a drought. What it typically does is alter the distribution pattern, creating more variability — some areas get excess rain while others face deficits,” explained Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay.

Delhi Airport Disruption

In a related development, sudden strong winds and a brief but intense thunderstorm at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport on Sunday evening caused significant disruptions. Three Air India aircraft suffered damage from the storm, and flight operations were suspended for approximately 90 minutes. The storm, a pre-monsoon thundershower driven by converging wind systems, brought wind speeds exceeding 70 km/h to parts of the national capital.

Also Read

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As India navigates this complex weather pattern — monsoon in the south, heatwave in the north, and the looming shadow of El Niño — the IMD has urged all state governments to maintain a state of preparedness for extreme weather events. The monsoon season, while essential for India’s water security and agriculture, also brings annual challenges of flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage that test the country’s disaster management capabilities.

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IMD’s Official Forecast and Current Conditions

In its official press release dated June 2, the IMD stated that conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into several regions simultaneously. The monsoon has already advanced into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area, and large portions of the Bay of Bengal. The meteorological conditions supporting the onset include the development of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea, the strengthening of westerly winds at lower atmospheric levels, and adequate moisture incursion from the Indian Ocean.

The IMD has forecast widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds over Kerala for June 2 and 3, with conditions expected to intensify as the monsoon formally sets in on June 4. Lakshadweep is also expected to receive heavy rainfall during this period. The department has noted, however, that cumulatively below-normal rainfall is likely over Kerala during the first week of the monsoon, suggesting the onset may be gradual rather than explosive.

What Monsoon Onset Means — The Science Behind It

The southwest monsoon is one of the most significant large-scale weather phenomena on Earth. Driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, the monsoon draws moisture-laden winds from the ocean toward the landmass, delivering approximately 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. The onset over Kerala marks the beginning of this process, after which the monsoon progressively advances northward and westward across the country, typically reaching Delhi by late June and covering the entire country by mid-July.

Meteorologists determine monsoon onset based on a set of specific criteria including sustained rainfall over a defined network of weather stations in Kerala, the depth and persistence of westerly winds, and satellite-derived measurements of outgoing longwave radiation that indicate deep convective cloud formation. The onset is not simply “the first day of rain” — it represents a fundamental shift in atmospheric circulation patterns that sustains rainfall over the subsequent months.

Implications for Agriculture and the Kharif Season

India’s kharif (summer) cropping season is directly tied to monsoon rainfall, with crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, and oilseeds depending on adequate and well-distributed precipitation. The monsoon accounts for approximately 50 percent of India’s total agricultural output, and its performance has far-reaching implications for food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic growth.

The timely onset of the monsoon is particularly welcome news for farmers who have been preparing their fields for sowing. A delayed onset can push back the sowing window, reducing crop yields and potentially leading to water shortages for irrigation later in the season. Conversely, a timely arrival allows farmers to begin planting operations on schedule, maximising the growing period available for kharif crops.

This year, the IMD’s earlier long-range forecast had predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, which if realised would be positive for agricultural production. However, forecasters have cautioned that the overall quantum of rainfall matters less than its distribution — both temporal and spatial. Prolonged dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events can be just as damaging as an overall deficit, leading to both drought stress and flooding.

Impact on Reservoirs, Water Resources, and Power Generation

Beyond agriculture, the monsoon is critical for replenishing India’s reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater aquifers. As of early June, several major reservoirs across southern and western India were reported to be well below their normal storage levels, making the incoming monsoon essential for securing drinking water and irrigation supplies for the coming year. Hydropower generation, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of India’s electricity supply, is also heavily dependent on monsoon inflows into dam catchment areas.

The monsoon’s arrival also brings relief from the intense heat that grips much of India during the pre-monsoon period. Several states including Rajasthan, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh have been experiencing severe heatwave conditions with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, and the progressive advance of the monsoon is expected to gradually moderate temperatures across the northern plains by late June.

Climate Change and Monsoon Variability

Climate scientists have noted that India’s monsoon patterns are showing increasing variability, with more frequent extreme rainfall events, longer dry spells within the monsoon season, and greater uncertainty in onset and withdrawal dates. Studies published in recent years have linked these changes to rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Arctic ice melt affecting atmospheric circulation, and changes in aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain.

The growing evidence of climate change impacts on the monsoon has prompted calls for improved weather forecasting infrastructure, expansion of irrigation coverage to reduce agriculture’s dependence on rainfall, and development of climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand both drought and waterlogging. The IMD has been upgrading its forecasting capabilities with new Doppler weather radars, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models, and AI-powered nowcasting tools, but challenges remain in providing accurate district-level forecasts that farmers can act upon.

For the coming days, the IMD has advised fishermen along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts to avoid venturing into the sea due to strong winds and rough sea conditions associated with the monsoon onset. Disaster management authorities in Kerala and Karnataka have been placed on alert for potential flooding and landslides in hilly regions, particularly in the Western Ghats where intense rainfall can trigger dangerous debris flows.

The post Southwest Monsoon to Hit Kerala Around June 4 as IMD Confirms Onset — What It Means for India’s Agricultural Season appeared first on Daily Tips.

The concerns have deepened further this week as updated models suggest the cumulative seasonal figure could slip to around 90% of LPA, bringing the forecast perilously close to the “deficient” threshold. For a country where 60% of farmland relies on monsoon rains and the kharif season drives nearly half the annual agricultural output, the implications are profound.

The El Niño Factor

At the heart of the grim outlook is a developing super El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño — characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — disrupts the Walker Circulation, a critical atmospheric pressure system that drives moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent during the June-September monsoon season.

The current El Niño event is being compared to the powerful 2015-16 episode, when India received just 88% of LPA rainfall. During that season, IMD had initially predicted 93% but was forced to revise downward as El Niño intensified. Climate scientists warn that history could repeat itself if Pacific Ocean temperatures continue their upward trajectory through June and July.

“The probability of a deficient season — rainfall below 90% of LPA — stands at 35%, which is more than double the long-term climatological probability of 16%,” noted a senior IMD scientist in a recent briefing. “The chances of a below-normal season are 31%, while the probability of normal rainfall has dropped to just 27%.”

Regional Impact: Most of India at Risk

The rainfall deficit is not expected to be uniform across the country. IMD projections indicate that barring some regions in the extreme north such as Ladakh, the extreme west including parts of Rajasthan, the Northeast, and portions of the northern south peninsula like Telangana, the rest of India will see below-average rainfall.

The Indo-Gangetic plain — India’s agricultural heartland covering Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab — is expected to bear the brunt of the deficit. These states collectively account for over 40% of India’s rice, wheat, and pulses production, and even a 10-15% shortfall in monsoon rains can dramatically reduce crop yields.

Southern states including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala — already grappling with erratic weather patterns — face their own challenges. The latter half of the monsoon season, typically July through September, is expected to be most affected as El Niño conditions peak.

Agricultural Consequences: Kharif Season Under Threat

India’s kharif (summer-sown) crops — including rice, cotton, sugarcane, soybean, and pulses — are critically dependent on monsoon rains. A below-normal monsoon could reduce the area under cultivation, delay sowing schedules, and lower per-hectare yields across multiple crops.

Rice, India’s most important kharif crop, requires sustained rainfall during the transplanting period in June-July. If rains are delayed or deficient, farmers in states like West Bengal, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh could be forced to reduce paddy acreage. India produced approximately 136 million tonnes of rice in 2025-26 — any significant drop could affect both domestic supply and export commitments.

Cotton and soybean farmers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh are particularly vulnerable. These crops need well-distributed rainfall through the growing season, and El Niño years historically produce uneven, concentrated spells of rain followed by extended dry periods.

Economic Ripple Effects

The monsoon’s influence extends far beyond the farm gate. Agriculture contributes roughly 15% to India’s GDP but employs nearly 42% of the workforce. A poor monsoon season can trigger a cascade of economic effects — reduced rural incomes, lower consumer spending in semi-urban and rural areas, and rising food prices.

Food inflation is the most immediate concern. The Reserve Bank of India, which has been carefully managing monetary policy, may face renewed pressure if vegetable and cereal prices spike due to lower production. During the 2015-16 El Niño, pulses prices surged nearly 40% year-on-year, forcing the government to import emergency stocks.

Reservoir levels across major dam systems — including Koyna, Bhakra, and Nagarjuna Sagar — are currently at seasonal averages, but a deficient monsoon could leave them below capacity by September, affecting irrigation supplies for the rabi (winter) season as well. This creates a double-whammy scenario where both consecutive crop seasons are affected.

Government Response and Preparedness

The central government has begun mobilising contingency plans. The Agriculture Ministry has directed states to prepare drought-management protocols and ensure seed and fertiliser supplies for alternative crop varieties that require less water. The PM-KISAN scheme disbursements have been fast-tracked to provide farmers with liquidity ahead of the sowing season.

Additionally, the government is expanding the coverage of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) crop insurance scheme, which saw enrolment surge 18% in the last kharif season. States have also been asked to keep buffer stocks of essential commodities ready to intervene in markets if prices spike.

What Experts Are Saying

Climate scientists caution that while the overall forecast is concerning, the monsoon’s actual performance will depend on several evolving factors. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — another oceanic phenomenon that can counteract El Niño’s effects — is currently neutral but could turn positive by August, potentially offsetting some of the rainfall deficit.

“The worst-case scenario could be a slightly negative rainfall during the monsoon,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “But the monsoon is a complex beast — local factors, the IOD, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation can all modulate the final outcome.”

IMD is expected to release its updated forecast in early June, with finer district-level projections. For now, India watches the Pacific with growing unease as the first monsoon rains, expected around June 1 on the Kerala coast, will provide the first real-world indication of what lies ahead.

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